No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 6 05:51:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 6 05:51:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today.
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will encompass most of the
CONUS as a 500 mb jet maximum overspreads the northern Plains from
the central Canadian provinces today. A surface trough will progress
across the MS Valley in tandem with the mid-level speed maximum,
with surface high pressure remaining in place east of the
Appalachians and West of the Rockies. A relatively cool and stable
airmass will overspread most of the CONUS and limit thunderstorm
potential over most areas. The main exception will be the FL
Peninsula, where 70s F surface dewpoints will reside ahead of a
diffuse baroclinic boundary, promoting enough buoyancy (albeit
marginal) to support scattered thunderstorm potential. Colder
temperatures aloft accompanying subtle impulses across the eastern
Great Basin/Central Rockies and the northern Great Lakes will
encourage a few lightning flashes in these regions as well.
...Central Florida Peninsula...
A weak surface low is poised to develop along portions of the
eastern Gulf and encourage locally backed surface winds across the
central FL Peninsula. Strengthening/veering flow with height will
yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, but with marginal,
thin CAPE profiles given very poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse
rates. A few storms may exhibit brief periods of transient low-level
rotation offshore, but the threat for persistent, rotating updrafts
reaching the shoreline appear too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/06/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Northern Great Lakes...
An upper low will move slowly toward James Bay, with a broad area of
cyclonic flow aloft extending from the Upper MS Valley across the
Great Lakes and into the Northeast. A backside speed max aloft will
nose into MI late in the day, and toward the Lower Great Lakes into
Thursday morning. Cool temperatures aloft north of the midlevel
speed max and minimal moisture may yield a few weak thunderstorms
late in the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes.
...Four Corners States...
Cool midlevel temperatures will exist across the Four Corners
states, east of the upper ridge axis over CA. Isolated general
thunderstorms will be possible with day time heating in the weak
flow regime. Locally strong gusts may occur during the peak heating
hours.
...NE...
During the evening, a slight increase in low-level warm advection
will occur over the Central Plains, and a few thunderstorms will be
possible over NE overnight. Although cool aloft, available moisture
will limit instability overall.
...FL...
High pressure will maintain stable surface conditions over the
southern Plains and Southeast, the exception being the FL Peninsula
where scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Instability and shear will not favor severe storms.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will move slowly into western Quebec on Thursday, with
a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft from the northern Plains across
the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Low-topped convective
showers may occur over parts of the upper Great Lakes by virtue of
cold temperatures aloft.
To the south, high pressure will maintain dry conditions over much
of the Southeast, the exception being FL where a moist air mass and
daytime heating will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
To the west, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur during the
afternoon over parts of the Four Corners states, and overnight from
eastern NE into northwest MO. Here, moisture will be the limiting
factor to any elevated hail chances.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A jet streak advancing into the Dakotas will introduce dry, breezy
post-frontal conditions from the lee of the northern Rockies through
the western and central Dakotas. Winds will generally remain light
across the broader region, but areas immediately behind the front in
the Dakotas may experience sustained winds near 15-20 mph alongside
higher gusts. Fuels remain minimally receptive, which will prevent a
more significant fire weather threat. However, locally elevated
conditions will remain possible in areas of isolated dry vegetation.
..Stearns.. 10/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Day 2/Wednesday, an upper-level jet streak will continue
advancing southeast over the northern Plains and Great Lakes
regions. This will be accompanied by a cold front moving across
portions of the Midwest with northwesterly surface winds near 15-20
mph in its wake. However, RHs will fail to drop below 30%, which
only reinforces the already limited fuel receptiveness, precluding a
notable fire weather concern.
..Stearns.. 10/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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