No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 27 10:57:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 27 10:57:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of
NM/TX and into the Plains on Thursday as a midlevel shortwave trough
moves across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains.
Deep-layer southwesterly flow is expected to remain modest, and any
stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern tier of the
U.S. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 50s to low 60s
dewpoints across the southern Plains toward the Lower MO Valley
vicinity. This will support a band of modest destabilization from
eastern NM into KS on the nose of stronger low-level warm advection.
However, the area of any appreciable destabilization is expected to
be displaced from the modest large-scale ascent provided by the
ejecting southern stream shortwave. Overall, severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of
thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the
Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel
shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer
flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone
and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the
Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday.
Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface
cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture
ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing
moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest
instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around
850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms
depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty
is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement
and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for
increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next
week.
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