199
FXUS66 KLOX 260944
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
244 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...26/230 AM.

Dry and warm conditions will continue through the first half of
this week. Cooler conditions will follow, with a growing
potential for a moderate to strong storm system towards next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...26/230 AM.

A series of upper lows affecting the PACNW will bring lowering
hgts and W to SW flow over Srn CA. Hgts will fall from 580 dam to
576 dam. At the sfc near neutral gradients will see a slow onshore
trend esp to the east.

The only low clouds this morning will be over the Central Coast
accompanied by some dense fog. Most areas will see 2 to 4 degrees
of cooling, which will push max temps 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.

Not much change to the benign weather on Tuesday. Skies south of
Pt Conception should remain free of low clouds, but there is about
a 30 percent chc that the LA coasts will see low clouds at dawn. A
few more degrees of cooling due to hgt falls will bring max temps
across the csts/vlys to the 70s.

The increase in onshore flow, the increase in cyclonic turning
aloft and the lowering hgts will all join up to bring an extensive
morning low cloud pattern to all coasts and most vlys on
Wednesday. The low clouds will clear slowly and some beaches may
not change at all. In addition there will be enough high clouds
in the upper flow to make the skies partly cloudy across the area
in the afternoon. The marine layer, onshore flow and even lower
hgts will bring additional 1 to 3 degrees of cooling to all areas.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...26/230 AM.

On Thursday, slightly cyclonic SW flow develops over Srn CA as
another upper low spins out of British Columbia. It will be a
mostly cloudy day due to a combination of low mid and high clouds.
Due to the extensive cloud cover max temps will flatten out and
almost all areas save for the mid and upper mtn elevations will
see max temps in the upper 60s or lower 70s.

On Friday the flow turns more to the SW and the cyclonic turning
sharpens. The day will most likely resemble Thursday will cloudy
skies and cooler than normal temps (4 to 8 locally 12 degrees
under normal). But there will be a 10 to 20 percent chc of brief
and light shower or two.

All eyes on the next storm system, which unfortunately, remains a
low confidence forecast. One problem comes from timing and
placement of a moisture plume moving in from the SW and the other
is the evolution of the upper low over WA and OR. Until the mdls
settle down and begin to converge on a solution the forecast will
have to be broad brushed. There is very high confidence that it
will rain during the weekend, but low confidence on onset timing
and peak timing. Rainfall amounts are also a low confidence
prediction. The current estimate calls for most areas south of Pt
Conception to recieve about an inch with higher amounts in the
foothills and coastal slopes. Most mdls keep most of the plume to
the south of Pt Conception so areas north of there will probably
see half that amount. There is a 20 to 30 percent chc that
rainfall totals will be double that amount. Stay tuned for
the latest details on this developing storm system.

Snow levels will generally be high, although light snow may occur
at high elevations on the backside of the storm.

Max temps will only be in the mid to upper 60s through the
weekend.

An active weather pattern may continue behind next weekend, with
a 50-60 percent chance of above normal precipitation into the
following week.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0536Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of
the inversion was 1300 feet with a temperature of 22 degrees
Celsius.

For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU TAFs for KSBA,
KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

For KSBP there is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conds, and a 30-40
percent chance that LIFR/VLIFR conds do not affect KSMX or KPRB.
For KLAX, KLGB and KSMO, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/VLIFR
conditions 08Z-16Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is only a 20% chance of
2SM BR OVC004 conditions 12Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/236 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. This afternoon through Wednesday, high confidence in
winds increasing to SCA levels. On Thursday and Friday, there is a
50-60% chance of SCA level winds continuing.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For this afternoon and evening,
there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds. For Tuesday through
Friday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon
and evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the
southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half
of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-60% chance of SCA level
winds in the late afternoon and evening hours Monday and Tuesday,
then again on Friday.

Dense fog is likely to form over portions of the coastal waters
over the next 48 hours, but low confidence on exactly when and
where.

A significant storm system will impact the area sometime in the
late Friday through early next week timeframe. There is a wide
range of outcomes, but there is at least a low threat of a 12-24
hour period of strong winds and step seas.

&&

.BEACHES...25/1227 PM.

Very high tides between 7.5 and 8.0 feet (roughly 1.0-1.5 feet
above astronomical predictions) are expected during the morning
hours through Thursday over all coastal areas, with the highest
towards Los Angeles County. Monday through Wednesday could produce
the highest on record (current record at San Pedro is 7.93 feet
set on Jan 10, 2005 with records going back to 1924).

Minor coastal flooding is likely purely based on the high tides.
While these tides might be the highest of all-time, similar
extreme tides in the past tell us that coastal communities should
expect shallow flooding of harbor walkways, beach parking lots and
bike paths. With swells and surf on the lower-end during these
extreme tides (2-3 feet), the threat of more significance/damaging
impacts should be limited to the most vulnerable areas that have
little-to-no sandy beach left and have already seen water damage.

With that said, these is a small change for more elevated surf on
south-facing shores around Wednesday as waves from a southern
Hemisphere storm arrive. The majority of computer projections keep
this wave energy on the small side, but a couple are a little
larger.

With all of these considerations in play, Coastal Flood
Advisories are in effect today through Thursday. There is a low
potential for targeted Coastal Flooding Warnings if a larger swell
develops and produces elevated surf on top of the very high
tides.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 1 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti
BEACHES...RK/RAT
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet.