409
FXUS66 KLOX 062116
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
216 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...06/214 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will be common over
coastal areas and the coastal valleys through at least this
weekend, with clearing each afternoon. Hazardous heat will occur
through this weekend over interior areas. Aside from the chance
of a few mountain showers on Sunday, dry conditions will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...06/1249 PM.

***UPDATE***

Little change in the pattern through the short term, with a ridge
of high pressure aloft centered near the four corners region.
This ridge will remain more or less stationary through Friday and
then expand westward so that heights rise over southern
California. Heights aloft will rise to 596 dam by Saturday before
decreasing some into Sunday. Gradual warming is expected through
the next couple of days, and Saturday is likely to be the warmest
day in this stretch of heat. The highs Friday through Sunday will
be around 4 to 8 degrees above normal, and locally 10 degrees
above normal. There is lower confidence in temps for the
nearshore areas due to variations in the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of the marine layer. Heat advisories and warnings
are in effect for the lower mtn elevations and the far interior.
Even through the coastal vlys are not included in these
advisories, residents will need to be mindful of the afternoon
heat and take appropriate precautions.

Onshore winds are expected to be gusty and persistent through the
short term, increasing during the afternoon and evening hours
across interior sections including the Antelope Valley. The
strongest onshore winds are expected to be later today and on
Sunday, based on projected surface pressure gradients. In
general, onshore gradients to the northeast and north (LAX to
Daggett and LAX to Bakersfield) will weaken some Friday, then
strengthen Saturday and especially Sunday. The gusty winds across
the interior in combination with the hot and dry conditions will
produce elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions.

Monsoonal moisture will begin to move over the area today with
southeast flow aloft, due to the position of the upper high over
the Desert Southwest region. This flow pattern aloft will draw
subtropical moisture across the area, mainly at levels above
around 600 mb. Precipitable water values today will increase from
1.0 inch to near 1.25 inches, but probability forecasts show the
best chances of showers or thunderstorms will remain east of LA
County this afternoon and evening. There is still a low (10-15%)
chance of convective activity over the eastern San Gabriels and
eastern Antelope Valley today. Chances will remain low through
Saturday, but some ensemble members show a better chance on
Sunday.

The increase in monsoonal moisture will also increase humidities
closer to the surface, at least for the coast and near-coastal
areas. Along with the warmer sea surface temperatures, this will
tend to increase heat impacts during the daytimes and keep
overnight lows warmer than normal.

Low clouds and fog will continue to affect coastal areas and some
of the coastal valleys during the night to morning hours through
the short term. This pattern could be disrupted depending on the
amount of monsoonal moisture aloft, which could slow or prevent
marine layer formation.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...06/132 PM.

Cooling will finally arrive on Monday, with a gradual cooling
trend through the long term. The ridge will slowly weaken as a
series of weak trofs moves through OR and far nrn CA. Hgts will
fall to 592 dam. At the same time onshore flow will increase both
to the north and the east becoming strongly onshore in both
directions in the afternoons. The marine layer will respond to
this and low clouds will likely begin to xtnd into the vlys. Look
for slower than normal clearing and some west facing beaches may
see only limited clearing each afternoon and evening.

The combination of a deeper marine layer, stronger onshore flow,
and falling hgts will bring 2 to 3 degrees of cooling each day
Monday through Thursday. Max temps will approach normals on
Tuesday and then most areas will see blo normal max temps on Wed
and Thu. Vly temps on Wed and Thu will only be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s.

PWs will remain elevated through the period, however. This in
combination with warmer than normal ocean temperatures off the
immediate coast will continue to make things feel a little
stickier than normal. It will also keep overnight lows a little
warmer than normal. We will remain on the fringe of the monsoonal
moisture through at least Wednesday. The elevated moisture and
increased instability will keep keep the low chc (10 to 15
percent) of afternoon mountain convection going.

The strong onshore flow to the east will produce gusty near
advisory level wind gusts across the western Antelope Vly and the
western foothills.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1826Z.

At 1727Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2700 feet with a temperature of 27 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight cat
restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours, and CIG heights by +/- 200
ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. CIGs expected to return
04Z-16Z, but timing could be off by +/- 2 hours from TAF times.
40% chance conds dip to IFR overnight. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds expected.

&&

.MARINE...06/213 PM.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) criteria into this weekend, with the exception of northwest
winds locally gusting to 20-25 knots in typically windy areas
around and to the south of Point Conception each afternoon and
evening through Saturday.

Dense fog may affect portions of the coastal waters each night
through morning, especially this weekend across the waters north
and west of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones 38-377-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones
      344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Ciliberti/Rorke/Lewis
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...KL/RS/DB/Cohen/CC
SYNOPSIS...Cohen/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox